Sunday, May 25, 2008
Friday, May 23, 2008
More cold hypothesis
However, based on the near perfect equilibrium state of the planet's atmosphere, it's very likely that any life on Mars is tenuous, and has yet to make its influence felt upon the planet. As we move further out from the sun, it would seem at first impression that our chance of finding life would get slimmer and slimmer, but in fact, probably the best place after Earth to search for life is not Mars, but the warm salty ocean of Jupiter's moon, Europa.
Europa is a small world about the size of our moon, covered with a near worldwide ocean capped by thick layers of ice. As we've seen, not only can bacteria live in ice, but the basic building blocks of life might be preferentially formed in ice. As comets rain down and occasionally strike Europa their organic material becomes embedded in the ice. As that ice contracts and expands, it concentrates organic molecules into possibly more complex forms, which then reach their freedom in the warm salty ocean underneath Europa's ice. Who knows what creatures may be living there in the oceans of Europa?
Having followed the same four billion year evolutionary path that life on earth has followed, could there be life on Saturn's moon Titan? The jury is still out on this, but the ever increasing levels of complex organic molecules, sometimes described as lakes of lighter fluid, make it possible that with a little bit more energy, Titan may be the next place to experience the genesis of life in our solar system.
What does this mean for the Battlestar Galactica universe? Well intelligent life probably still is very rare throughout the galaxy (notice that the Colonials haven't found intelligent life), but complex life, rather than being an absolute rarity as discussed in several episodes of the show, should be quite plausible and quite common no matter where in the galaxy you are.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Cold life
Stanley Miller spent the last 25 years of his life performing this exact experiment; he kept various organic compounds frozen to see what came out when he thawed them. Unfortunately, the results are inconclusive.
If the Cold Life Hypothesis is correct, this would expand the places in our own solar system where we might expect to find life. Suddenly life is possible not only here on Earth, but on some of the more formerly inhospitable places in the solar system. Take Mercury, for instance. Mercury is so hot that the subsolar point, the point on the planet directly underneath the sun, is slightly soft and gooey because the sun's heat is melting the surface rocks. Yet it is theoretically possible that ice in the polar craters of Mercury might contain enough organic molecules to at least begin the process of life.
Venus is probably too hot and dry for life as we know it. But what about the clouds? Nothing in our experience says that life cannot exist in clouds, and the upper clouds of Venus are temperate and loaded with water. If Venus begun its life very similar to the earth, it's not impossible to imagine an ecosystem that transferred itself from the shallow primordial oceans of Venus into the oceans of clouds that surrounds its surface.
Mars has long been thought of the best place in the solar system to search for life, though the 1976 Viking mission --which found no trace of life-- pretty much put that belief to a halt. Yet the Cold Life Hypothesis, when combined with the giant polar caps of Mars, visible to any home telescope, forces now to reconsider whether or not Mars has the possibility for life.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
The Ice Moon
The basic idea behind Miller-Urey's experiments with pre-biotic organic material is that heat usually causes molecules to more active,. This means that they will bump in to each other more regularly, which means that with any luck more complex molecules will be created, and eventually some of those molecules will constitute the start of life. But there are other ways to generate complex organic molecules.
The Cold Life Hypothesis starts with a solution of water and simple organic molecules. As this solution freezes, it should concentrate the organic molecules into smaller and smaller vesicles in the ice, and this concentration of more and more organic molecules in to smaller and smaller spaces serves the same purpose as gentle heat does in Miller and Urey's life jar experiments. Each bubble in the ice becomes a miniature laboratory, each performing its own experiment, mixing various organic molecules in an ever tightening space and creating new building blocks of life. When the ice thaws, those building blocks of life should then be released in to the water, where they will mix with other newly thawed organic compounds.
During the next cold snap, when ice is formed once again, new chemical compounds will share the same vesicles, creating even more and more complex organic molecules that lead to the creation of life.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Speculation
Just a guess:
Gaeta is the fifth Cylon. He finds out about his Cylonity just before he returns to workin the CIC, just before the Colonial-Rebel forces blow up the Resurrection hub. When he recognizes that he is a Cylon, he realizes that he could be resurrected with a complete leg. But his last chance, his only chance, to become a whole person again is about to be destroyed. He figures this is the last straw -- he's been frakked over by the Colonial civilization for far too long. In the CIC, he unholsters his weapon and points it at his own head, threatening to kill himself unless the attack is called off. The attack is called off, and Gaeta kills himself anyway. Since he's the only one who knows he's a Cylon, everyone things he just snapped and killed himself. Gaeta resurrects on the Cylon ship. Realizing that he can't go back, and feeling that he doesn't want to go back, he joins the 1,4,5 faction against the Colonial-Rebel alliance and becomes their leader.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Is a human population of ~39,000 genetically viable?
It probably is – genetic populations of as little as 500 people are genetically viable, if the 500 are as genetically mixed as possible. The real question comes from the demographics of the remnants of the colonial fleet.
The 12 colonies of Kobol are presented as being very similar to our own western civilization with one exception: they have a highly developed spaceflight sector of the economy and they have developed large scale teleportation.
If we assume that their spaceflight industry is roughly analogous to our airline industry, with people going to spaceports and catching a spaceship to another planet with the same ease that we take a cab to the airport to catch a plane, then we can get some idea of what the remaining Colonial population looks like.
A 2005 survey by Northwest Airlines shows that their non-holiday demographic skews toward middle aged professionals. The average age of their passengers is 45; the median age is 43. Half of them have incomes over $75,000 per year. 57% are professionals, managers, or executives. They break down to 52% female, 48% male. In other words, if you're going to have to repopulate the human race, and rough it on unoccupied planets for the rest of forever, you're going to have to do it with a bunch of middle aged executives.
This is reminiscent of the “B Ark” scenes in the the book The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. In the book, Ford Prefect and Arthur Dent, the last survivors of the destruction of Earth, visit a planet occupied by a motley crew of hairdressers, tired TV producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers, security guards, management consultants, telephone sanitizers and the like, originally from the planet Golgafrinchan. They still live in caves because they don't know how to build houses, (reminiscent of the living conditions on New Caprica City) but they have established a government by committee and they hold numerous meetings. Gradually Ford and Arthur learn that the Golgafrinchans were sent into space allegedly to escape the destruction of their own planet. Their occupations were placed on the “B Ark”- the “A Ark” was reserved for great thinkers and the “C Ark” was reserved for workers who actually knew how to do things. Unfortunately, the advertising executives explain to Ford and Arthur, the A and C arks were lost.
Dent and Prefect pretty soon figure out what has happened – all the useless people in Golgafrinchan society (consisting of hairdressers, tired TV producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers, security guards, management consultants, telephone sanitizers and the like) were placed on a spaceship and sent out into the unknown, under the subterfuge of saving their lives. The A and C people of Golgafrinchan went on to live full rich and happy lives, until they were killed by a virulent disease spread by an unsanitized telephone.
This is pretty much the type of crowd the Colonials have to repopulate their civilization.
We might think that one saving grace for the future of the Colonies would be the relatively young and diverse crews of Galactica and Pegasus. But that's not necessarily the case: once again, if we assume that our own US Navy demographics are similar to those of Galactica, we find that the human race after a Cylon attack might still be in trouble. According to its 2004 personnel report, the US Navy consisted of about 14% women and 86% men. (Actually, it looks like the Colonial fleet is more female-friendly than the US Navy. Let's say women make up 25% of the crew.)
There are approximately 3500 military people in the fleet, and about 35,000 civilians (roughly 10 times as many civilians as soldiers). If the average age of menopause is 51, let's say that around 2/3 of the women on the civilian fleet can have at least one more child without becoming Cylon baby factories. That would work out to 2/3 of 52% of 35,000, or about 12,133 fertile women. For the military, the US Navy reports 2/3 of their crew is younger than 30 – their prime child bearing years – which in our case works out to about 2/3 of 25% of 3500, which we'll call 583.
Estimating the total number of fertile females in the fleet at around 800, this means that the number of fertile females in the colonial population is in the neighborhood of 13,000, with around maybe 1500 in their peak fertility years. Is that enough to maintain the genetic diversity necessary to keep a species vital? Almost certainly - but maybe not for very much longer. More in the next report...
Book
Well, that was fast.
Look for "The Science of Battlestar Galactica" on Amazon and in bookstores some time in 2009.
What have I gotten myself into? :-)
Blog Archive
Final cylon?
About Me
- Patrick Di Justo
- I am a contributing editor for Wired Magazine. I write science fiction. I used to work at the American Museum of Natural History. I have worked as a robot programmer for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. I have lost $500,000 in US currency. I have done standup comedy. I have walked on the outside ledge of the 72nd floor of the Empire State Building for a radio story. I have designed experiments that have flown on the Space Shuttle. I grew up in a haunted house in Yonkers, NY. I have been on the internet since 1989. I have developed a method of digital rotoscoping (check out my videos). I have explained meteorites to David Byrne. I have had Wolf Blitzer steal pizza from me. I have shaken hands with five men who have walked on the moon.
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